Posts Tagged ‘asean’
Behavior agreement that is agreed among claimants on South China Sea dispute are the most important milestone. It is important for several reason. First, the agreement will make the dispute on the South China Sea is predicable and manageable. Subsequently, it will lead to the regional stability. Second, the agreement is the first step to the next peace agreement. Once the stability is ensured and the dispute is managed, it just will be easier to setup a peace agreement regarding the dispute. But the next question, will China or other claimants comply to the agreement for a while? I believe that the claimants will be quite for a while. They will use the break to setup more comprehensive strategy to claim the resource-rich South China Sea. If this prediction accurate, we have to be cautious to the break. There will be more complicated dispute on the region because each claimants will come with more comprehensive strategy to claim the disputed area.
It is a shocking news for me that Myanmar is going to undertake its nuclear plans. Al Jazeera just make it clear that Myanmar is actually has “nuclear plans”. There are evidence that proofed by Journalist from the Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB). They have been gathering information about secret military projects in Myanmar for years. If this is true, it will be a bad news. If Myanmar are going to become a nuclear power, Myanmar are likely to be the most powerful yet dangerous country in Southeast Asia for several reason. First, for years the stability of ASEAN is existed because there is no nuclear power in the region. If there suddenly exist, there will be a significant distribution of power in the ASEAN. Myanmar will be the most powerful. Even worser, Myanmar will be uncontrollable by the norm and binding code. Subsequently, Myanmar will be an important variable that determine ASEAN stability. is Just like how North Korea operate in the East Asia. So, it is important to be cautious regarding the issues.
This is actually a significant development about the story of dispute between ASEAN countries and China. Even Chinese diplomat called it “milestone document”. There are several reason why the document is very important. First, because the sea is very hot. The South China Sea is a resource-rich area. Countries that involved in the dispute will surely use their ultimate power to defend their claim. Therefore, without behavior agreement, the dispute could become even worser than ever. Second, because China, as the most powerful country in the region, has resisted such agreement for years. This is just make the dispute more complicated. The most powerful country just resisted such binding code of conduct. But, with some complicated diplomatic strategy, China finally agreed such binding code. Actually, this is a mystery for me. The question, what China will get from such binding agreement. Logically, such binding agreement will only limiting China’s action on the South China Sea. Subsequently, ASEAN countries are the luckiest. China’s threat will be limited because of the agreement.
The secretary general of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) on Wednesday urged leaders of the 10-member bloc to move from vision to action, saying they must promote a region of creativity to stay competitive.
The next question, is it possible to urge ASEAN’s creativity? I believe, ASEAN have it’s basic requirement to be a creative region. But, I’m not sure that ASEAN’s creativity will be manifested almost immediately. ASEAN still need a long time to transform it’s societal culture. Specifically, it take a long time to transform consumer culture to be producer culture.